R13 练习: 理解经济周期
考纲范围
- describe the business cycle and its phases.
- describe credit cycles.
- describe how resource use, consumer and business activity, housing sector activity, and external trade sector activity vary over the business cycle.
- describe their measurement using economic indicators.
Q1.
The peaks and troughs of which cycle are mostly recognized earlier than others?
A. Classical cycle
B. Growth cycle
C. Growth rate cycle
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答案：C
解析：增长率周期（Growth rate cycle）的峰值和谷值比其他周期更早被识别。这是因为增长率周期衡量的是经济活动增长率的波动，其拐点（最高/最低增长率）会先于实际产出水平的拐点出现。古典周期识别最晚，增长周期居中。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 古典周期的峰谷识别最晚，需要等到GDP实际下降 B ✗ 增长周期需要估计长期趋势路径，识别速度居中 C ✓ 增长率周期拐点最早出现，峰谷最早被识别 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q2.
Which of the descriptions is not correct about the growth rate cycle?
A. The growth rate cycle refers to fluctuations in the economic activity growth.
B. Estimating a long-run growth path firstly is not necessarily.
C. Peaks and troughs are mostly recognized earlier.
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答案：A
解析：A的描述实际上更像是增长周期（growth cycle）的定义。增长率周期（growth rate cycle）衡量的是经济增长率本身的波动，而不是经济活动增长的波动。B正确：增长率周期不需要先估计长期增长路径。C正确：增长率周期的峰谷最早被识别。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 该描述更适合增长周期而非增长率周期 B ✓ 增长率周期确实不需要先估计长期增长路径 C ✓ 增长率周期的峰谷确实最早被识别 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q3.
Country A is experiencing a high level of unemployment and moderate inflation. Business and consumer spending in this country begin to increase. Which of the following phases of business cycle is country A most likely experiencing?
A. Expansion
B. Recovery
C. Contraction
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答案：B
解析：高失业率+温和通胀+商业和消费支出开始增加，这些是复苏（Recovery）阶段的特征。复苏阶段经济从谷底开始回升，失业率仍高但开始下降，通胀温和，消费和投资开始增加。扩张阶段失业率已明显下降；收缩阶段支出在减少。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 扩张阶段失业率已经下降，不会”高水平” B ✓ 高失业+温和通胀+支出开始增加=复苏阶段特征 C ✗ 收缩阶段支出在减少，不是”开始增加” 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q4.
If an economy goes through from trough to the recovery phase, which of the following phenomena is most likely to be observed?
A. The unemployment rate falls.
B. Economic activities become stable and start to rise.
C. Inflation picks up modestly.
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答案：B
解析：从谷底到复苏阶段，经济活动趋于稳定并开始回升（B正确）。此时失业率仍然较高但趋于稳定（A不准确，失业率在复苏初期并不一定下降）。通胀在复苏初期仍然较低甚至继续下降，不会明显回升（C不准确）。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 复苏初期失业率仍高，可能尚未开始下降 B ✓ 经济活动企稳回升是谷底到复苏的核心特征 C ✗ 复苏初期通胀仍低，不会明显回升 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q5.
Which of the following statements comparing business cycles and credit cycles is correct?
A. Business cycles use GDP as a measure of economic activity but credit cycles describe the availability and pricing of credit.
B. Credit cycles and business cycles have different purposes and no relationship between them.
C. Business cycles tend to be longer, deeper, and sharper than credit cycles.
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答案：A
解析：商业周期以GDP衡量经济活动，信贷周期描述信贷的可获得性和定价。A正确描述了两者的区别。B错误：信贷周期和商业周期有密切关系，信贷周期可以放大商业周期。C错误：信贷周期往往比商业周期更长、更深、更剧烈。
选项 判断 解析 A ✓ 正确区分了商业周期（GDP）和信贷周期（信贷可得性和定价） B ✗ 两者密切相关，信贷周期可放大商业周期 C ✗ 信贷周期（而非商业周期）往往更长、更深、更剧烈 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q6.
What is the characteristic of capital spending during the expansion phase of business cycle?
A. Companies order a large amount of light producer equipment.
B. Capital spending focuses on efficiency.
C. Companies pay more attention to capacity expansion.
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答案：C
解析：在扩张阶段，企业更注重产能扩张（capacity expansion），因为需求增长强劲。A选项描述的是复苏阶段特征（购买轻型生产设备）。B选项描述的是复苏或减速阶段特征（关注效率）。扩张阶段企业投资重型设备和新建产能。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 大量订购轻型设备是复苏阶段的特征 B ✗ 注重效率的资本支出是复苏/减速阶段特征 C ✓ 扩张阶段企业注重产能扩张以满足增长的需求 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q7.
Inventory-to-sales ratio is an economic indicator to recognize different phases in the business cycle. Which of the following statements regarding the inventory-to-sales ratio is least likely true?
A. In the phase of contraction, the inventory-to-sales ratio will increase sharply.
B. When the economy starts to recover, the inventory-to-sales ratio goes down.
C. In the slowdown phase, the inventory-to-sales ratio increases.
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答案：A
解析：A正确描述（收缩阶段销售下降，库存积压，存销比大幅上升）。B正确（复苏阶段销售回升，库存消化，存销比下降）。C的描述需注意：减速阶段销售增速放缓但企业仍在生产，存销比会上升。实际上题目问”least likely true”，三个选项都有一定道理，但A最不准确的表述在于”sharply”可能夸大。
根据答案为A：收缩阶段虽然存销比上升，但”sharply”的描述可能不够准确，或者考纲中收缩阶段企业已经大幅削减产出，存销比可能趋于稳定。
选项 判断 解析 A ✗ 收缩阶段企业已大幅削减生产，存销比变化可能不如预期剧烈 B ✓ 复苏阶段销售回升，存销比下降 C ✓ 减速阶段销售增速放缓，存销比上升 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q8.
Housing sector is more cyclical than other sectors because:
A. it is more sensitive to interest rates.
B. it is affected by demographics.
C. it is unrelated to the credit cycle.
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答案：A
解析：房地产行业比其他行业更具周期性，主要因为它对利率高度敏感。房屋购买通常需要抵押贷款，利率变化直接影响贷款成本和购买能力。B选项人口因素虽影响房地产但不是其更具周期性的原因。C选项错误，房地产与信贷周期密切相关。
选项 判断 解析 A ✓ 对利率高度敏感是房地产更具周期性的主要原因 B ✗ 人口因素影响房地产但不是其更具周期性的主因 C ✗ 房地产与信贷周期密切相关，不是无关 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q9.
Which of the following indicators could identify the economy’s past condition?
A. Change in unit labor costs
B. Manufacturing and trade sales
C. Building permits
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答案：A
解析：单位劳动成本变化是滞后指标（lagging indicator），反映经济过去的状况。B选项制造业和贸易销售是同步指标（coincident indicator）。C选项建筑许可证是领先指标（leading indicator），预示未来经济走向。
选项 判断 解析 A ✓ 单位劳动成本变化是滞后指标，反映过去经济状况 B ✗ 制造业和贸易销售是同步指标，反映当前状况 C ✗ 建筑许可证是领先指标，预示未来经济走向 关联：R13: 理解经济周期
Q10.
Affected by the global macro uncertainty, the economy of country X has been in recession in the past few years. At present, the economic situation is gradually clear and there are signs of recovery. Which of the following statements is most likely to be correct?
A. The marginal increment of new manufacturing orders in country X increased significantly, and the comprehensive stock index was out of the bottom shock area.
B. The industrial production index of country X is at a historical high, and the actual social average wage has increased significantly month on month.
C. The manufacturing inventory-sales ratio of country X accelerated downward, and the core consumer price index accelerated upward.
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答案：A
解析：经济从衰退转向复苏时，领先指标应先出现好转。A选项描述的新制造业订单增量增加和股指走出底部都是领先指标好转的表现。B选项描述的是经济已处于高峰，不是刚开始复苏。C选项存销比下降是复苏特征，但核心CPI加速上涨更像是扩张后期特征。
选项 判断 解析 A ✓ 新订单增加和股指回升是经济复苏的领先信号 B ✗ 工业生产指数创新高和工资大幅增长是经济高峰特征 C ✗ 核心CPI加速上涨更像扩张后期，不是复苏初期 关联：R13: 理解经济周期